Big South teams embrace playoff bid

NCAA Football Betting Lines

07/29/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Almost everywhere you look, Liberty is considered the prohibitive favorite to win the Big South football title this fall.

The rest of the conference, however, has motivation that goes way beyond feeling overlooked by the voters.

The chance to go to the FCS playoffs is all the buzz among Big South teams. The conference champion will gain an automatic bid for the first time when the playoffs expand from 16 to 20 teams in late November.

The Northeast Conference champion will also advance to the playoffs with a new automatic bid, and two more at-large selections will fill the other two spots.

Big South head coaches and selected media installed Liberty as their preseason favorite for the fourth straight year in a poll released at their kickoff luncheon today in Charlotte, N.C. Liberty gained 11 of 13 first-place votes. Stony Brook, which beat Liberty and tied the Flames for the title last season - though both teams stayed home during the playoffs - was selected second, followed by Coastal Carolina, Charleston Southern, Gardner-Webb, VMI and Presbyterian.

"The automatic bid puts our program and our conference on the same playing field as the rest of the Top 25 FCS programs in the country," Liberty coach Danny Rocco said. "We've strived each year to be Big South Conference champions, but we also want to be a program of national prominence and in order to do that you have to play at the national level. We've just missed out during the last few years, but this year we know our goal is attainable if we just take care of business in our own league."

There's good reason for the Flames to believe they will win the Big South's first automatic bid to the playoffs. The Flames have gone 26-8 overall and 14-1 in the conference over the last three seasons, though they haven't received an at-large bid.

They were 8-3 overall and 5-1 in the conference last season, and return 14 starters and 43 lettermen from a squad that led the FCS in scoring offense (36.4 ppg) a year ago.

Mike Brown is the Big South's preseason offensive player of the year, ready to take over the quarterback duties full-time after starring as a wide receiver and part-time signal-caller last season. Brown and fellow returnees Aldreakis Allen and Sir Chauncey Holloway rushed for a combined 25 touchdowns, and the Flames add Massachusetts running back Corey Davis to the backfield. Brown also has a go-to target in Chris Summers, who caught 46 passes and is part of a dynamite group of wide receivers across the conference.

"The key to winning the Big South title, as in most leagues, is depth at key positions and experience," Rocco said. "We had a younger team last year that was able to carry on a now growing tradition here at Liberty and I'm excited to see what they can do this year. Most of our skill-position players are back this year and we are coming off the best spring workouts I've experienced since I've been at Liberty."

Liberty and Gardner-Webb tied for the conference high with eight selections on the preseason squad. Gardner-Webb will be a physical team with the likes of offensive guard Corey O'Daniel and linebackers Marty Patterson and Jeffery Williams, who is coming off an injury-plagued season.

The biggest title challengers to Liberty figure to be Stony Brook, which returns junior quarterback Michael Coulter and junior running back Edwin Gowins, and adds a bunch of influential transfers; Coastal Carolina, which has an key transfer as well in quarterback Aramis Hillary, formerly of the University of South Carolina; and Charleston Southern, which has a superb wide receiver and return specialist in Gerald Stevenson, but also has to improve defensively.

BIG SOUTH PRESEASON POLL (Head Coaches and Selected Media)

1. Liberty (11 first-place votes), 103 points;

2. Stony Brook (1), 81;

3. Coastal Carolina, 68;

4. Charleston Southern (1), 65;

5. Gardner-Webb, 54;

6. VMI, 31;

7. Presbyterian, 18

PRESEASON BIG SOUTH ALL-CONFERENCE TEAM

Offensive Player of the Year - Mike Brown, QB, Liberty

Defensive Player of the Year - Marty Patterson, LB, Gardner-Webb

Offense

QB- Mike Brown, Liberty. RB- Edwin Gowins, Stony Brook; Patrick Hall, Gardner- Webb. WR- Gerald Stevenson, Charleston Southern; James Perry III, Gardner- Webb; Chris Summers, Liberty. TE- David Duran, Coastal Carolina. OL- Corey O'Daniel, Gardner-Webb; Paul Fenaroli, Stony Brook; Alex Stadler, Liberty; Jordan Lancaster, Charleston Southern; Jamie Dunaway, Gardner-Webb.

Defense

DL- Joel Walton, Charleston Southern; Asa Chapman, Liberty; Josh Wine, VMI; Quinton Davis, Coastal Carolina. LB- Marty Patterson, Gardner-Webb; Jeffery Williams, Gardner-Webb; Doncel Bolt, Liberty; Emilio Calvin, VMI. DB- Josh Norman, Coastal Carolina; Cedric McGowan, Gardner-Webb; Brent Vinson, Liberty; KaJuan Lee (tie), Liberty; Chris Kuzdale (tie), Charleston Southern.

Specialists

PK- Matt Bevins, Liberty. P- Marc Ray, VMI. LS- Daniel Bonifas, Coastal Carolina. KR- Tyson Petty, Gardner-Webb. PR- Gerald Stevenson, Charleston Southern.

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How did changes to college football betting rules affect bettors?

The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.

While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.

For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.

1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.

2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.

How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.

Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.

Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.

How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).

Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.

Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.

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NCAA Football Betting : USC's reward: Top spot in Top 25

NEW YORK (AP) -By staying away from the cupcakes, Southern California earned itself a slim new ranking.

No. 1 always seems to fit USC.

Southern California jumped two spots to No. 1 in The Associated Press Top 25 on Tuesday, rewarded by voters for opening the season with a dominant performance on the road against a BCS conference opponent.

Georgia and Ohio State, the preseason Nos. 1 and 2, respectively, started their seasons with glorified scrimmages at home against FCS (formerly I-AA) teams. USC, however, traveled across country to face Virginia and could not have been more impressive in a 52-7 victory.

Georgia fell to No. 2 and Ohio State to No 3.

"We realize that rankings so early in a season are certainly fluid. But rankings do help establish a pecking order for things later in the season," USC coach Pete Carroll said in a statement. "As for moving into the No. 1 spot, it's nice to know that people think highly of our team."

Since reaching No. 1 on Dec. 7, 2003, the final-regular season AP poll of that season, USC has been No. 1 in 39 polls, by far the most of any team during that time.

"Some have said the voters are taking our schedule into consideration," Carroll said. "Our philosophy has always been to schedule outstanding opponents. We need to play challenging games like we just did, traveling across the country to open the season at Virginia. Games like that bring out our best and make us stronger as a team."

The latest voting was close. USC received 21 first-place votes and 1,539 points from the 65-member media panel. Georgia had 20 first-place votes and 1,506 points. Ohio State got 15 first-place votes and 1,497 points.

"I'd say we've evolved as pollsters," said Stewart Mandel of SI.com, who moved USC up to No. 1. "In the past, voters just kind of automatically moved teams up and kept teams where they were if they won."

Georgia beat Georgia Southern 45-21 on Saturday and Ohio State opened with a 43-0 win over Youngstown State.

"There's a bit of a growing backlash for the amount of teams that open with I-AA cupcakes," said Mandel, whose book "Bowls, Polls and Tattered Souls" chronicles college football's controversies. "To see a team [USC] go on the road and play a New Year's Day bowl team from last season, and not only play them but destroy them, how could you not reward that team?"

USC also jumped past Georgia to No. 1 in the USA Today coaches' poll, which has the same top five as the AP poll.

"It's definitely a privilege to be No. 1. But it's not heartbreaking to me if we drop," Georgia offensive lineman Josh Davis said. "It doesn't matter right now what we're ranked. What matters is our next game and right now, that's Central Michigan. The only time the polls matter is in December. That's when the polls matter."

While the Bulldogs opened easy, their schedule ultimately should be as difficult as any team's. Georgia's big nonconference test is at No. 15 Arizona State on Sept. 20. The Bulldogs also face six Southeastern Conference rivals that've been ranked in the first two polls.

As for Ohio State, the Buckeyes play at USC on Sept. 13 before getting into the Big Ten schedule.

But of the teams in this week's top 10, USC and Texas are the only ones that don't play an FCS opponent, and the Trojans are the only team that doesn't play a team from a non-BCS conference.

Get the latest 2009 BCS Championship odds at MySportsbook.com.

The last team to drop from No. 1 after a victory was USC last season. LSU jumped from No. 2 to No. 1 when it beat Tulane 34-9, the same week the Trojans edged Washington 27-24 on the road.

The last preseason No. 1 team to lose the top spot after winning its opening game was Florida in 2001. The Gators beat Marshall 49-14, but preseason No. 2 Miami opened with a 33-7 victory over Penn State and the Hurricanes jumped to No. 1 with Florida slipping to second.

The next four teams in the new Top 25 stayed the same: No. 4 Oklahoma (two first-place votes), No. 5 Florida (five first-place votes), No. 6 Missouri (one first-place vote), No. 7 LSU (one first-place vote) and No. 8 West Virginia.

No. 9 Auburn and No. 10 Texas each moved up a spot, taking advantage of Clemson's big drop. Clemson, ninth in the preseason, fell out after losing 34-10 to Alabama on Saturday.

Also falling out after losses were Virginia Tech, Pittsburgh and Tennessee.

Moving into the rankings were No. 21 Fresno State, No. 22 Utah, No. 23 UCLA and No. 24 South Carolina.

Alabama moved up 11 spots after its big victory over Clemson.

The second 10 started with No. 11 Wisconsin, followed by Texas Tech, Alabama and Kansas. BYU and Arizona State were tied for 15th. Rivals BYU and Utah are both ranked for the first time since 1996.

South Florida was No. 17, ahead of Oregon, Penn State and Wake Forest at No. 20.

The final five were all the teams to move into the ranking, except for Illinois, which dropped four spots and tied South Carolina for No. 24.

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