Cubs, Mets conclude series at Wrigley

Baseball Betting Lines

09/05/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Chicago Cubs try to continue their resurgence under interim manager Mike Quade this afternoon when they go for a sweep in their three-game series with the New York Mets at Wrigley Field.

The Cubs improved to 8-3 under Quade on Saturday, as rookie Starlin Castro notched his sixth consecutive multi-hit game and Carlos Zambrano allowed two runs in seven strong innings, helping Chicago to a 5-3 victory.

"They deserve a lot of credit," Quade said of the Cubs' players. "They seem to have committed to getting after it this last month. I don't think they'll quit -- I know they won't quit. Whether it will result in a fine record, I don't know. But the kind of effort that people want to see and hopefully improvement, that I expect."

Zambrano (7-6) struck out eight and walked two while allowing four hits for the Cubs, who made Quade the first Chicago manager with eight wins in his first 11 games since Jim Essian in 1991.

"We know he's emotionally driven, but that can go too far and get him in trouble," Quade said of Big Z. "He has to pitch with passion and emotion. But in his last several starts, he's calmly gone about his business and made pitches.

In six starts since coming off the restricted list due to anger management issues, Zambrano is 4-0 with a 1.98 earned run average.

Castro, whose 76 hits since July 10 lead the majors, is 13-for-26 with three doubles, two RBI and eight runs during his impressive streak, which is the longest for a Cubs' rookie since Don Johnson did it from May 21-28, 1944.

Jenrry Mejia (0-3) made his first career start for the Mets and yielded four runs, eight hits and two walks while fanning two in five frames. The 20-year- old became the youngest starter in team history since Dwight Gooden debuted as a 19-year-old in 1984.

"I thought he did OK, but there are some things he needs to take command of to become what you'd consider to be a solid, solid player," Mets manager Jerry Manuel said.

Ike Davis hit his 16th homer for New York, which fell to a dreadful 1-15-4 in NL road series this season.

Hoping to deliver the Cubs their fourth straight win will be righty Ryan Dempster, who is coming off a dreadful outing his last time out. Dempster absorbed the loss on Tuesday against Pittsburgh, as he lasted just three innings and was hammered for seven runs and seven hits to fall to 12-9 on the year, while raising his earned run average to 3.71.

Dempster, who is one win shy of 100 for his career and 50 with the Cubs, is 9-4 lifetime against the Mets with a 5.57 ERA in 24 games, 13 of which have been starts.

New York, meanwhile, will counter with Jonathon Niese, who is 8-7 with a 3.70. Niese lost his second straight start on Tuesday in Atlanta, as he allowed eight runs - just three earned - and 10 hits in 4 3/4 innings.

Niese did not get a decision the last time he faced the Cubs, despite giving up just an unearned run in 5 1/3 innings, and is 0-1 in two starts against them with a 6.23 ERA.

With a win today the Cubs would claim their first series sweep over the Mets since turning the trick from April 23-25, 2004 at Wrigley.

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FOOTBALL BETTING : Crabtree's base deal: six years, $32 million

Football Betting

In the wake of the news that the 49ers have signed receiver Michael Crabtree after an extended holdout, there has been not a hint of the dollars to be paid to Crabtree.

And since this means that his agent hasn't leaked the numbers, it means that his agent feels no specific motivation to do so.

Possibly because his agent isn't all that thrilled to have his name on the deal.

So the numbers will come from sources other than Crabtree's agent. And we've gotten our mitts into them.

Per a league source, Crabtree has signed a six-year, $32 million contract. (The total includes guaranteed money, base salaries, and the one-time incentive based on achieving minimum playing time.)

The deal also includes $17 million in guaranteed money.

As reported elsewhere, the deal can void to five years based on performance triggers, wiping out a final year base salary of $4 million. But they won't be easily reached.

The source tells us that, in his first four seasons (including 2009), Crabtree must either qualify for two Pro Bowls, or he must qualify for one Pro Bowl in one year and he must participate in 80 percent of the offensive snaps in a separate year in which the team makes the playoffs.

In other words, if in 2010 he qualifies for the Pro Bowl and the team makes the playoffs and he participates in 80 percent of the snaps, he'll still need to make it to the Pro Bowl or achieve the 80-percent/playoffs in another season.

Since the chances of Crabtree making the Pro Bowl or participating in 80 percent of the offensive snaps this year is roughly zero percent, he'll have three years to get it done.

And it won't be easy. Frankly, he'll be hard pressed to make it to one Pro Bowl in three years with the likes of Larry Fitzgerald, Calvin Johnson, Anquan Boldin, Steve Smith, the other Steve Smith, Hakeem Nicks, DeSean Jackson, Johnny Knox, Percy Harvin, Greg Jennings, Roddy White, T.J. Houshmandzadeh in the same conference for sportsbook betting.

So, by all appearances, it's a six-year deal. And at $17 million in guaranteed money, the per-year guarantee is a tepid $2.83 million per year.

There's another problem with the deal -- it has no mid-tier incentive package. Instead, the additional $8 million that Crabtree can earn (pushing the max value to six years, $40 million) requires the kind of unrealistic, mega-star performances that no rookie is likely to ever achieve.

So while the contract paid to Packers defensive tackle B.J. Raji covers five years and pays $22.5 million, he has the ability (if he's a solid player) to make up the difference between his base deal and Crabtree's five-year, $28 million haul via the mid-tier incentive package in Raji's deal.

And unless Crabtree meets the performance thresholds necessary to void the sixth year, he'll be stuck under contract for another year at a base salary of only $4 million.

There's one other area of concern with the deal. Crabtree, per the source, received no option bonus. Instead, he has significant money tied to a fairly new device known as a "discretionary salary advance," which unlike an opition bonus is subject to forfeiture if Crabtree decides in a year or two that he wants to hold out for a better deal. (We're also told that the 49ers have included language that would make certain escalators subject to forfeiture, too.)

Meanwhile, the deal falls well short of the mark for which Crabtree and agent Eugene Parker were aiming -- the five-year, $38.25 million contract paid by the Raiders to receiver Darrius Heyward-Bey, the seventh overall pick in the draft.

Even if Crabtree successfully voids the final year, he'll make more than $2 million per year less on average than Heyward-Bey.

Thus, as we explained earlier in the day, this is a deal that Crabtree could have done in July, which would have given him a much better chance of making a contribution to the 49ers during his rookie year.

So while the final outcome can be described as win-win, the broader view suggests that it's really a lose-lose situation.

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Michael Vick is back, Brett Favre isn't and the NFC East remains the best division in the NFC, maybe in all of football.

As players start to gather for the start of another season, some things change and some stay the same in the world of the NFL.

Bet 2010 Super Bowl Odds

The NFC East has been the dominant division in the National Conference for a while, despite limited playoff success, save for the New York Giants surprise Super Bowl win two seasons ago.

Hell, there's a generation of kids in Texas who have never seen the Cowboys win a playoff game (last win was in 1996).

But collectively, the Giants, Eagles, Cowboys and Redskins (well, maybe not so much the Redskins) are as good as a division gets in an NFC conference that has struggled to stay competitive with the AFC side.

Sports bettors have both acknowledged the NFC East's dominance, as one glance at the NFL future odds menu will show.

Looking over the NFL betting odds at online sports book MySportsbook.com we see the top three teams listed to win the NFC Championship are all from the NFC East:

Dallas Cowboys - 7 - 1

Philadelphia Eagles - 13 - 2

New York Giants - 9 - 2

Slotting in behind these three are two teams from the NFC North: the Minnesota Vikings (15-2) and the Chicago Bears (10-1).

Again, despite the lack of recent playoff success, the Dallas Cowboys are popular with the sports betting community, as they hold 14% of all the money wagered on who will win the NFC Championship.

So far, the New York Giants are the bettors' favorite to represent their conference in the Super Bowl, as they have 24% of the overall NFC Championship betting volume.

And what about the Philadelphia Eagles? For the most part, the Eagles had a very productive offseason, the kind that could bring them back to the top.

They had a good draft adding the likes of WR Jeremy Maclin and RB LeSean McCoy.

Unfortunately, the team received a blow when long-time defensive coordinator Jim Johnson passed away on Tuesday.

But this team will make a real run at the division title this year. Going into the regular season, Philly is listed at +240 to win the division.

Last season the Eagles were 9-6-1 SU and 10-6 ATS.

Teams from the NFC East will play teams from the AFC West in the regular season and the Eagles haven't really been a good bet in the last 20 games against the likes of San Diego, Oakland, K.C. and Denver, only going 8-12 ATS.

Two seasons removed from that Super Bowl title, the New York Giants see themselves listed as the odds-on favorite in NFC East championship futures at +162.

Plaxico Burress is gone and with him all the bad publicity surrounding the gun in the sweatpants incident, but can they replace him in the offense?

Last season the Giants were a very reliable bet going 12-4 ATS.

In the Giants' last 20 games against fellow teams from the NFC East; they are 13-7 ATS.

Dallas is listed at +240 to win the division.

Dallas went 9-7 SU and 7-9 ATS last season and with the amount of talent the Cowboys have, a similar performance won't do.

The Cowboys have been atrocious against divisional rivals, going 6-14 ATS in their last 20.

The Washington Redskins are longshots to win the division at +550.

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