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09/15/2007 - Wuhan, China (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Katrine Pedersen scored and set up a goal as Denmark, playing with its coach in the stands because of a suspension, topped New Zealand, 2-0, on Saturday.
Coach Kenneth Heiner-Moller was suspended two games by FIFA for making contact with an official after Denmark's 3-2 loss to China on Wednesday.
He'll also miss Wednesday's key Group D game against Brazil, but at least the Danes are in position to qualify for the quarterfinals following a solid game against New Zealand. Cathrine Paaske Sorensen also scored for Denmark.
Denmark has been surrounded by controversy following an allegation of spying after finding two men with video cameras hiding behind a two-way mirror prior to its game against China. FIFA quickly dismissed the allegations, saying the two men were not related to any other team.
With its first win of the tournament, Denmark took the first step to move on from the distractions and reach the next round for the first time since 1995.
Denmark dominated early, holding possession for the majority of the first 15 minutes, but couldn't create any solid chances until later in the half.
The Danes had their best chance of the first half in the 20th minute when Paaske Sorensen launched a 30-yard blast off the crossbar.
It was far from the only chance for the Danes or Paaske Sorensen, as she just missed her second goal of the tournament again in the 26th minute on a header just over the crossbar.
Denmark's last solid chance of the opening half was from career scoring leader Merete Pedersen, who didn't start against China. She had a shot deflected wide by New Zealand's defense in the 39th minute.
New Zealand goalie Jenny Bindon played well in a busy first half, making three saves and coming off her line numerous times to cut off scoring chances.
Denmark continued to test Bindon early in the second half, forcing her to make a save just seconds after the restart.
Another solid Denmark threat followed in the 55th minute when Maiken Pape sent a header high from just a few yards out.
A few minutes later in the 61st minute, Denmark finally found the target.
Pape set up the chance when she was taken down just outside the top of the box by Bindon. Katrine Pedersen lined up the free kick and her shot dipped toward the left corner, deflecting off Bindon's fingertips before going into the net.
Denmark needed just six more minutes to extend its lead off another free kick by Katrine Pedersen. Her attempt was from just outside the top left of the box but instead of a shot, she crossed to the far post to Paaske Sorensen.
Paaske Sorensen, who scored in the 87th minute of a 3-2 loss to China, had a defender on her hip but jumped to head the ball and slotted it inside the left post.
New Zealand managed just three shots, but didn't put any on goal. The club, in its first World Cup since 1991, had its lone notable moment in the 87th minute when Annalie Longo, who is just 16, became the second youngest player to ever play in the World Cup.
New Zealand plays its last game of the group stage on Wednesday against China.
<< Heavy wind delays Solheim Cup
Halmstad, Sweden (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Heavy wind gusts of 40 mph forced
tournament officials to delay the start of the Saturday foursomes matches at
the Solheim Cup.
The wind knocked over signs, tents and even some trees at Halms
<< Greene's homer carries Padres over Giants in 10th
San Diego, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Khalil Greene belted a home run in the
bottom of the 10th inning to lift the San Diego Padres to 5-4 victory over the
San Francisco Giants at Petco Park.
With one out in the 10th, Greene smacked the fi
<< Francoeur's two-run single lifts Braves over Nats in 13th
Washington, DC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Jeff Francoeur's two-run single in the 13th
inning led Atlanta to an 8-5 victory over the Washington Nationals.
Chipper Jones, who returned to the lineup after missing three starts due to
a strained
<< Guillen's sac fly lifts Mariners over D-Rays
Seattle, WA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Jose Guillen's sacrifice fly in the bottom of
the ninth sent Seattle over Tampa Bay, 2-1, in the second of four between the
teams at Safeco Field.
With Gary Glover (5-5) on the hill, Ichiro Suzuki began
Another late rally for Europe keeps it close >>
Halmstad, Sweden (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The 18th hole doomed the Americans.
Two European teams won the 18th hole to earn crucial halves in the first two
matches of Saturday's foursomes matches at the Solheim Cup.
In the foursomes, each tea
Robredo, Gonzalez advance to China Open final >>
Beijing, China (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Tommy Robredo and Fernando Gonzalez will
meet in Sunday's final after each took care of business in Saturday's
semifinals at the $500,000 China Open.
Robredo nipped German wild card Nicolas K
Samba Queens dance all over China >>
Wuhan, China (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Marta and Christiane each scored two goals as
Brazil rolled to a 4-0 win over China on Saturday, its second impressive win
in the World Cup.
Brazil defeated New Zealand 5-0 in its opener and with the win ov
Aussies leave it late against Norway >>
Hangzhou, China (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Lisa DeVanna came on as a second-half
substitute and rescued a point for Australia as she scored in the 83rd minute
to give the Matildas a 1-1 draw with Norway on Saturday.
Ragnhild Gulbrandsen sco
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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