Illinois welcomes No. 15 Wisconsin to Champaign

NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

03/07/2010 - Champaign, IL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - In desperate need of a win, the Illinois Fighting Illini seek an upset of the 15th-ranked Wisconsin Badgers today in a Big Ten showdown at Assembly.

At 10-7 within the conference, Illinois is already guaranteed a fifth place finish, but is in need of a run to keep its NCAA Tournament hopes alive. Once a lock for the Big Dance, the Illini have fallen in four of their last five outings to put them on the so called bubble at 18-12. The team had an opportunity to help its chances of reaching the NCAA Tournament on Tuesday, but came up short in a 73-57 loss at nationally-ranked Ohio State.

The Badgers, meanwhile, can finish no worse than fourth in the conference and could even grab a third seed for the upcoming league tourney with a win today and a Michigan State loss to Michigan. Winners of three straight games, including a 67-40 trouncing of Iowa on Wednesday, Wisconsin has earned a first-round bye in the league postseason and is competing for a high seed in the NCAA Tournament.

As for the all-time series, Illinois owns a 108-74 advantage over Wisconsin and the Illini handed the Badgers their lone home loss of the season with a 63-56 decision back on February 9th.

The Badgers shot an efficient 54.9 percent from the floor, including a 6-of-12 showing from long range, as they breezed past Iowa earlier in the week. Wisconsin, which broke the game open with an 18-0 run in the first half, also dominated the boards 33-20. Jon Leuer led the way with 18 points on 8-of-9 field goals, while Trevon Hughes and Jason Bohannon checked in with 15 and 11 points, respectively. For the season, Hughes tops the roster in scoring at 15.4 ppg and he shoots 40.0 percent from beyond the arc. Leuer adds 14.6 ppg and a team-high 5.8 rpg to the mix, while Bohannon tacks on 12.3 ppg on 41.3 percent shooting from three-point range.

The Illini made just 38.3 percent of their attempts from the floor and were outscored at the foul line, 15-4, in a loss at Ohio State this past week. The battle on the boards also went to Ohio State, which held a 41-32 advantage. Demetri McCamey paced the team in defeat with 18 points and seven helpers, while Mike Tisdale had 10 points and four blocks. For the season, McCamey has not only been counted on to lead the team in scoring at 15.1 ppg, but he is also responsible for running the show, dishing off 6.9 apg. Tisdale brings 11.5 ppg and 6.1 rpg to the lineup, while D.J. Richardson chips in with 10.5 ppg. Mike Davis, the team's leading rebounder at 8.8 rpg, gets into the mix with 10.4 ppg as well.

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Numerous College Basketball teams take final big step to March Madness betting

So, what turned on the lock spigot? Well, after what felt like weeks of teams treading water and slipping back into the bubble muck, a bunch of them finally decided to say "to heck with parity" and won games that should put them into the Big Dance.

Disagree with some of these? Then here's the challenge. Take all of the "should be ins" and make a legit case that each should be ahead of the team that's a lock. Then find 10 more teams that also should be placed in the bracket ahead of that lock team. Not so easy, is it?

If you want more evidence that these locks should be good to go, check out what our research department dug up. Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, only six teams from a "big six" conference have had a record of 10-6 or better in conference play and not been selected: Colorado (2004) and Nebraska (1999) from the Big 12, Boston College and Seton Hall (both 2003) from the Big East, Indiana (2005) from the Big Ten and UCLA, which somehow went 12-6 in the Pac-10 in 1988 and still missed out. (Note: Five teams went 11-7 and didn't get in, the latest being last season's Stanford team, which had a brutal nonconference run.)

Yes, 10 conference wins doesn't always mean what it used to because of unbalanced schedules, but this season, it should be plenty good in all but the extreme cases (see: Iowa).

In a way, this is a welcome development, because this is a bubble watch, not a lock watch. We can finally be done with teams like Maryland and Virginia Tech and start really bearing down on at-large battles such as Syracuse-West Virginia and Appalachian State-Georgia Tech.

Interestingly, all the shifting of teams into lock status appears to be more administrative than impactful. The number of remaining available at-larges didn't change one iota. The only difference is that teams on the bubble now have a clearer idea of which team(s) they are competing with for those precious bids.

The Bubble Breakdown
CONFERENCE LOCKS SHOULD BE INS AT-LARGES TAKEN
(assuming no auto bid outlier)
ACC Betting Odds 6 0 5
Big East Betting Odds 5 0 4
Big Ten Betting Odds 2 2 3
Big 12 Betting Odds 3 0 2
Pac-10 Betting Odds 5 1 5
SEC Betting Odds 4 0 3
MVC Betting Odds 1 1 1
MWC Betting Odds 2 1 2
TOTAL 28 5 25

As always, I've tried to be as inclusive as possible while only including teams that would have a reasonable chance of at least being discussed if this were Selection Sunday. If your team's not on here, there's probably a good reason (or three) -- start with the RPI and SOS numbers and work your way down.

(Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only. Next update: Feb. 28)

If you have a legitimate grievance, or just like talking bubble, send an e-mail. Polite ones with fact-based arguments have a much better chance of receiving a response. I apologize in advance if I can't get back to all of you.

Atlantic Coast Conference

Work left to do: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech

The ACC moves to six locks as BC, Va Tech and Virginia all got their 10th ACC wins, which should be more than enough this season, and Maryland rallied past North Carolina to get the final piece the Terps needed. After that? It could end there unless FSU, Ga Tech or Clemson picks things up in a hurry.

 

Work left to do:

Clemson [19-9 (5-9), RPI: 41, SOS: 42] The Tigers are closer to locking up the collapse of the year award (in a good battle with OK State) than they are to grabbing an at-large. Clemson's been very competitive, but there's no really positive way you can spin nine losses in 11 games. They now cannot get to .500 in ACC play and still must head to Virginia Tech in the season finale (after hosting Miami). Unless the Tigers win both and/or do some serious work in the ACC tourney, they very well could be left out. There are no great nonconference wins, but ODU, App State, Miss. State, South Carolina and Georgia are all respectable W's.

Florida State [18-11 (6-9), RPI: 48, SOS: 14] The Noles got thrashed at Maryland to run their losing streak to five, but then pounded NC State at home to set the table for what likely is an elimination game at Miami. You can at least make a case for the Seminoles at 7-9 in ACC play (and some work in the ACC tourney), but 6-10 is not going to cut it. Wins at Duke and over Florida will resonate, but the computer numbers remain questionable. Beyond Florida, FSU thrashed bubble buddy Providence, but there's not a ton beyond those two games that will help. They didn't show well in big-time opportunities against Pitt and Wisconsin (before the Florida win).

Georgia Tech [18-10 (6-8), RPI: 51, SOS: 46] The Jackets beat Wake on Wednesday but couldn't get it done at UVa on Saturday, which could be a crucial loss with UNC and BC (both at home) remaining and 8-8 almost a certain need for at-large consideration. A nonconference win over Memphis helps, but the RPI and SOS are not at-large quality right now; if you combine those with a sub-.500 ACC mark, that could spell NIT for GT.

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