Mankins mess a situation that bears watching

Football Betting Lines

07/22/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The NFL's training camp season is once again approaching. Time for grueling two-a-days, the emergence of fantasy sleepers, and Brett Favre's annual yo-yo act with the inevitable familiar ending.

And of course, no summer in the National Football League would be complete without the time-honored tradition of contract squabbling between players and teams, usually resulting in contentious holdouts that pose a dangerous threat to the on- and off-field harmony the preseason programs are designed to achieve.

There's a particularly nasty situation brewing in New England, where the Patriots and All-Pro guard Logan Mankins are embroiled in a dispute that has shown no early signs of reaching a quick accord. Both parties have drawn lines in the sand, with the notoriously rigid Pats slashing Mankins' still-unsigned restricted free agent tender by over 50 percent, and the sixth-year pro sitting out last month's mandatory mini-camp in protest of the lack of progress on a long-term deal.

Mankins, one of more than 200 players who missed out on a chance for unrestricted free agency in the spring due to the league and its Players Association's failure to reach an agreement on a new collective bargaining plan, reportedly turned down a multi-year offer believed to average between $6.5 and $7 million per season from the Patriots a few months back. That's a nice chunk of change, especially at a position that rarely commands top dollars, but would still be dwarfed by the eye-opening seven-year, $56.7 million pact Jahri Evans -- a player with a similar experience level and credentials as Mankins -- received from the Super Bowl champion Saints in May.

New England countered by reducing Mankins' tender from $3.268 million (the highest amount a restricted free agent could receive this season) to $1.54 million (the minimum 10 percent raise over his 2009 salary), further heightening tensions between the two sides and showing the organization is going to take a hard-line stance on the matter.

That unyielding approach should come as no surprise, however. The Patriots were involved in a comparable situation with Deion Branch, then the team's No. 1 wide receiver, back in 2006, and also refused to budge as the equally-as- stubborn former Super Bowl MVP held out the entire preseason. New England eventually traded Branch to Seattle for a first-round draft choice, then replaced him by stealing a disgruntled Randy Moss from the Oakland Raiders the following April. We all know how that move worked out.

The Patriots aren't averse to shipping off cornerstone players for monetary reasons either, as last year's startling trade of five-time Pro Bowl defensive lineman Richard Seymour to the Raiders will attest. And with Tom Brady's contract set to expire at the end of the season, owner Bob Kraft could be less willing to pony up the big bucks to keep Mankins alongside his franchise icon in the coming years.

New England was able to avoid a potential summer standoff with nose tackle Vince Wilfork by signing the premier run-stopper to a lucrative five-year contract back in March, which would seem to work in Mankins' favor at first glance. But with Brady likely to command a deal in the neighborhood of $20 million per season and the Patriots having morphed into a more pass-oriented team in recent years, having an elite run-blocker like Mankins on board could be viewed as more of a luxury than a necessity. And with the speedy emergence of 2009 rookie Sebastian Vollmer into a starting-caliber tackle, the club may be able to slide deposed starter Nick Kaczur into the left guard spot without a precipitous drop-off.

Mankins and his camp still seem to be steadfast in their demands despite the obvious risks, and appear more than willing to hold their ground as well.

"I'll tell you one thing, I'm old-school, he's old-school," agent Frank Bauer told the Boston Herald last week. "We're two highly principled guys. If everyone's making two bucks, I'll make two bucks. If everyone is making $8 million, I'm making $8 million."

At just 28 years old and unequivocally among the top three or four players at his position at the very least, Mankins stands a good chance of the big payday he's seeking. Just don't be surprised if it's with a team other than the Patriots.

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We all know by now that the “public” loves to put their money on the FAVORITES and the OVERS.  Just by taking a quick glance at Sportsbook.com’s “Betting Trends” it appears as is this tendency will continue as far as the Eastern Conference games are concerned.  For the inaugural games of the first round, 69% of the early money is on Toronto -4.5; 59% of bettors prefer Chicago -4.5; 84% are backing Detroit -9; and 56% think Cleveland -11.5 is the way to go.  As far as TOTALS are concerned, the only UNDER the “public” is backing is the Cleveland/ Washington game in which 83% are pounding the UNDER (190).  Remember, there is no better way to predict a possible line change than by monitoring MySportsbook.com’s “Betting Trends”.   By determining who the “public” is backing, you can get the most ideal line for your bet.  For example, if you are siding with the public you better place your bet before the line moves in the wrong direction.  On the other side of the coin, if you prefer the team that the “public” is betting against; you might be able to get and extra ½ or even more by placing your bet a bit later.  Under the “Betting Trends” section, Sportsbook.com also provides plenty of statistical data and trends in order for the bettor to make the most informed pick.  Below are some extremely important trends for the first round opponents of the Eastern Conference match-ups, more can be found at MySportsbook.com

New Jersey Nets vs. Toronto Raptors

Toronto was the most reliable covering team this season with a 48-33-1 ATS record but covered the OVER only 41.5% of the time.
The last 20 times these teams have played, the TOTAL has gone UNDER 16 times.
Versus Eastern Conference teams, Toronto is 33-19 ATS including 17-9 at home.
 New Jersey has covered four games in a row while Toronto has failed to cover their last four games.
When playing a team with a winning record during the second half of the season, New Jersey was just 5-13 ATS this season.
After scoring 105 points or more, Toronto has covered the OVER only 28% of the time this season. 
 
Miami Heat @ Chicago Bulls

Miami has failed to cover their last 7 games whereas Chicago has covered 6 out of their last 8 games.
Miami has covered the UNDER in four of their last five games whereas Chicago has covered the UNDER in five out of their last six.
When playing on Saturdays, Miami covered 80% of their games this season.
Away from home, Chicago is just 16-25 ATS this season.
At home, Miami covered the UNDER about 66% of the time whereas Chicago covered the UNDER about 61% of the time.
The last 13 times these teams have played each other, Chicago has covered 9 times.
In Miami’s last 11 road games, the UNDER covered 9 times. 
 
Orlando Magic @ Detroit Pistons

Detroit has covered 5 out of their last 6 games.
Away from home, Detroit is 28-13 ATS but just 14-26-1 ATS at home.
At home, Orlando covered the UNDER 64% of the time while Detroit covered the UNDER in 63% of their away games.
The last five times these teams have played in Detroit, the OVER covered each time.
Versus Eastern Conference teams, Detroit is 8-17-1 ATS at home but 17-9 ATS away.
Detroit covered the spread 5 out of the last 6 times they played Orlando.
After a Division game, Orlando covered the UNDER 87% of the time this season. 
 
Washington Wizards @ Cleveland Cavaliers

In a home game where the TOTAL is between 190 and 194.5 points, Cleveland is 9-1 ATS this season.
Washington has covered the UNDER in their last 6 games and in 8 of their last 9 games.
The last 6 times these teams have played each other, the UNDER covered each time.
When playing on 3 or more days of rest, Washington is just 18-37 ATS since 1996.
Since 1996, Washington is 28-16 ATS versus Cleveland including 11-5 over the last 3 seasons.
In their last 7 road games, Washington is 6-1 ATS.
Versus Eastern Conference teams at home, Washington is just 6-18-2 ATS. 
 
For even more betting trends for not just the NBA but for all of the major sports, log on to Sportsbook.com and click on “Trends”.  With only two months left in the NBA betting season it is important to be as well informed as possible in order to maximize your profit.  Also for all of you poker players, check out MySportsbook.com’s “WSOP Low Bid Auction”. You could be on your way to Vegas to play against the world’s best poker players for under a buck.

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